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Five things to watch during Week 4 of College Football

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Shane Falco

09-22-2022

  1. Michigan's first test

While it is true that Michigan has yet to face a worthy opponent this season, that will change when they host Maryland on Saturday. The three opponents Michigan has faced rank from 125 to 131 in no particular order among the 131 FBS football teams. We're getting close to the bottom of the barrel here. Their season began with a quarterback duel between 5-star sophomore J.J. McCarthy and Cade McNamara, who led the Wolverines to their first conference title since the 2000s.

McCarthy was given the starting job for the rest of the season after a strong performance, taking over for the quarterback who had just led this team—a shadow of what it once was—to the Big Ten Championship. Maryland looks to get things started with Taulia  Tagovailoa, the younger brother of Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, plays quarterback for Maryland as well. They also have the Big Ten's second-best group of wide receivers. Will Michigan, which has annihilated its opponents so far this season, be able to stop a team with a pulse?

Michigan has been cover kings lately. They are 14-2 ATS in their previous 16 games. The fact that they were underdogs and unranked to begin the season last year has a lot to do with their ATS record, while Maryland is 7-9 against the spread. The question is whether Maryland can hold off Michigan's offense, which averages 45 points per game. I don't think they'll be able to score against this Michigan defense, and a 17-point spread isn't enough for me to believe they can.

  1. Razorbacks vs. GigEm'

Texas A&M bounced back after losing to Appalachian State in week 2 by defeating Miami, who was ranked 15th entering the game. Furthermore, their defense appears to be getting back on track. They were being decimated in ball control just a week ago, and this week they were the bullies. Despite being 3-0 and ranked among the top 10, Arkansas has had an up and down season thus far.

Going into Saturday, their quarterback K.J. Jefferson is the most talented playmaker for either of these teams. A&M's offense hasn't been very great so far this season, while Arkansas has had little trouble scoring despite playing against less opposition than A&M. With an O/U of 48.5 and A&M being favored at home while laying 2 points, Vegas thinks that this won't be a shootout. I know one thing for sure: K.J. Jefferson can score points. After what Appalachian State did to Texas A&M, I don't see why Arkansas can't do the same. Arkansas hasn't really played anyone of value so far this season. Arkansas and the over, please.

  1. Gators head to Knoxville to take on the Vols

After a shaky start to the season, Florida travels to Tennessee. Their former Heisman Trophy candidate quarterback has struggled the past two weeks, throwing four interceptions in each of those games. Hooker, on the other hand, has had a strong senior season thus far this year, ranking 12th in the country with a qbr of 86.3. This year, both teams have combined to hit four overs, but I'm not sure if the trend will continue. While Tennessee has reached the O/U this week of 62.5 twice this season, Florida has not done so against any of their opponents.

My gut tells me to take the under because Florida's quarterback hasn't been playing well recently, and 62.5 points may be too high. Because they have one of the best offenses in the SEC and I don't trust a team that struggled against a running quarterback like Florida did last week, I'd take Tennessee -10.5 straight up. One of our favorite plays of the weekend.

  1. Badgers head to The Horseshoe to take on Ohio State

The Buckeyes will open Big Ten play this Saturday against Wisconsin in a primetime game at the Shoe. After stumbling out of the gate and losing at home to Washington State in week 2, the once-ranked Badgers travel to Columbus in search of an upset. The Buckeyes scored an absurd 77 points against Toledo in their most recent game, demonstrating how much their offense has improved in recent weeks. Will this offense outperform its previous two opponents, or will they struggle to score against Wisconsin's strong, well-organized defense?

The spread has risen to -19 since the opening line, but the over/under has remained largely unchanged at 57. Because I know the Buckeyes will score and their defense has allowed numerous 40-yard plays since the first week, I strongly favor the over in this game. This is due to their aggressive defensive approach, which leaves them vulnerable to large chunk plays. Mertz has played admirably this season, throwing six touchdown passes and only two interceptions. They also have Braelon Allen, a talented running back who averages 6.6 yards per carry. On Saturday night, I believe Stroud will repeatedly lead the Buckeyes into the end zone and that their defense will to allow some touchdowns and cover the over and get the Buckeyes the win.

  1. Chaos in Corvallis?

Can USC spring another surprise in Corvallis? When Oregon State had good teams in the mid to late 2000s, this place was a nightmare for USC. Both teams are undefeated entering the game, with USC ranking in the top ten for the first time since 2017. This game, with an over/under of 70.5 points, is a strong contender for Pac 12 after-dark mayhem.

Even while I enjoy surprises, USC has a lot of firepower with Williams (qb), Addison (wr), and Dye (rb). Out of the six games played between the two, the over was reached four times. After this Saturday, I predict that both teams will add to that over total on Saturday. Also what is surprising is the amount of money wagered on this game. Oregon State is currently the most wagered on team in Vegas. However, I don't like the -6 spread for USC since strange things may happen in Corvallis.