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Five things to watch during Week 6 of College Football

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Shane Falco

10-08-2022

  1. High noon in Death Valley

The unbeaten Vols' trip to Death Valley on Saturday to take on an LSU team that tops the SEC in points off turnovers could be a big test for them. The issue is that Hendon Hooker hasn't thrown an interception all season. Tennessee, which ranks second in the FBS for total offense this season, has developed into an offensive powerhouse. Given that LSU leads the SEC in redzone defense and Tennessee leads the SEC in redzone offense, this game should be a matchup of strengths. Some may question why it is so low when Tennessee just has a three point margin in their favor. Although Tennessee has so far this season exceeded expectations, it is sometimes forgotten how difficult it is to play in Baton Rouge, even if it is a day game. The Vols' ranking of 128th out of 131 teams in terms of pass yards allowed per game is another stat that stands out to me. Although that is a terrible stat, LSU hasn't exactly been recognized as a passing club this season. They did have some successful long passes in week one, but against Auburn last week, they only managed 85 yards in the air in a victory. In my opinion, the outcome of this game will depend on whether LSU can successfully pass the ball against a Vols squad that has demonstrated their ability to be gashed in the air. I really believe that the outcome of this game will depend on a coin flip since LSU is 4-1 in underdog roles and the Vols are 3-1 as a favorite. I would favor Tennessee(-3) and the over if I had to go with my gut. If LSU can pass on this team there are going to be a lot of points scored but I think the Vols come out by a touchdown.

Prediction: Vols -3

  1. Red River Rivalry(shootout)

What a timeless rivalry. This historical rivalry between teams who genuinely despise one another might occasionally be skewed. 8 of the last 9 games have all been one possession games. OU has won the past four meetings despite the intense competition, but going into this season, they are attempting to avoid dropping three straight regular-season games for the first time since 1998. When it comes to the players on both teams on Saturday, this game also has a lot of unanswered questions. I doubt Dillon Gabriel will be ready to play for OU in this game after being knocked out of the TCU game last Saturday. Quinn Ewers, who suffered an injury versus Alabama, appears to be close to returning to action. Many Texas supporters will be eager to see how he looks after seeing how outstanding he was against Alabama before getting hurt. Since Oklahoma's defense has been the main topic of discussion all season, I don't even think the quarterbacks will have a big impact on the outcome of the game. In terms of rush touchdowns allowed, rushes over 10 yards, and rush yards allowed, they rank bottom in the Big 12. This is the player who will win the game for Texas; the only question is by how much. You can see the glee on Bijan Robinson's face when he hears those statistics. Texas is -7 and has a 3-1 record this season against the spread, while OU has a 2-3 record. I don't think this game will go above 65.5 because both quarterbacks have injuries, and one of them probably won't even play, but I like Texas -7 and the under.

Prediction: Texas -9

  1. PAC-12 before dark?

In a contest where both teams are ranked for the first time, UCLA will face Utah this Saturday for the midday Fox game. The past five meetings in this series have been won by Utah, but Chip Kelly and UCLA are 8-0 in their last eight games, tying a career-high for him. With a 65 point total, they are anticipating some points, which makes sense given that Utah has been winning by an average of 32 points since losing to Florida in the Swamp. Additionally, in their previous four games against this UCLA team, they have scored 182 points on their own. With Dorian Thompson-Robinson having a terrific year, this year could be different since UCLA is arguably playing better than it has in years. He and his squad haven't yet faced a club like Utah, which is the best in the Pac 12, only allowing 14 points and 132 passing yards per game. UCLA's performance in this game may serve as a declaration that they have arrived and are prepared to compete with the top teams in real college football. This might be Chip Kelly's most significant game as UCLA's head coach thus far in his fifth season there. Despite the fact that Utah appears to have a stronger program, it is understandable why the spread is just -4.5 for Utah. Utah is 4-1 against the spread this season, and as entertaining as UCLA has been this year, I would choose Utah -4.5 and the under.

Prediction: Utah -4.5

  1. Any given Saturday

Nick Saban has a history of harboring resentments. That's bad news for Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M. Last year, Jimbo spoke up as well as the Aggies defeating the top-ranked Crimson Tide at home. in between seasons. He chose to mention how allegedly Alabama has been paying their athletes for years when people were moaning about how A&M was spending too much money on recruits back in the winter. That is undoubtedly the case, but prior to the NIL period, not every significant program was flawless. Unfortunately for Texas A&M, they are traveling to Tuscaloosa this year and are in disarray following their humiliation by Mississippi State last week. If Bryce Young will play after suffering an injury last week against Arkansas is another major question. Although he is now listed as a game-time decision, given how their backup quarterback Jalen Milroe performed at the conclusion of the previous game, I don't anticipate much of an offensive drop-off, at least in the rushing area. Given how poorly the Aggies have performed lately, they are 24 point underdogs, and the over/under is set at 51.5. This only changes when Alabama plays A&M since they have gone over 4 of the previous 5 times when they have played them. Alabama is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games and has gone under in 5 of their last 7. I still believe A&M can stay within 24 points despite the enormous spread, perhaps with a late score to backdoor cover.

Prediction: Texas A&M +24

  1. Sneaky fun matchup between Kansas State and Texas Tech

Going into week 6, no one could have anticipated this unbeaten battle. The Hornfrogs go to Lawrence to take on Kansas, which is ranked 19th. a Kansas squad that is ranked for the first time since 2009 and has already surpassed its projected victory total for the season. With an O/U of 69, TCU is a 7 point favorite coming into this game. After demolishing OU by 31 points, TCU is coming in hot. In this game, Max Duggan amassed 300 yards via the air and an additional 100 through the ground. This may be due to Oklahoma's poor rushing defense this season, but TCU has consistently produced those kinds of stats. TCU has an 8-3-0 record against the total in 11 away games over the previous two seasons. There have been an average of 6.8 points over the line in those games, with a scoring average of 64.5 points per game. There will be two outstanding quarterbacks competing in this shootout. However, I believe that Kansas' winning streak has come to an end since they will not cover the +7 point spread.

Prediction: TCU -7