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2022 MLB Playoffs Wild Card Round Preview

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Max Wagers

10-06-2022

  1. Rays vs. Guardians

Two teams heading in opposite directions. The Guardians soared in the final month of the season and are one of the hottest teams in baseball, while the Rays limped into the end of the year, finishing 4 and 12 and falling from first to third in the Wild Card standings. This series features two of the league's best pitching staffs. In terms of ERA, the Rays are ranked fourth, while the Guardians are ranked sixth. They are ranked fourth and fifth in WHIP and sixth and eighth in opposing batting average, respectively. This series is for you if you enjoy pitching. The Guardians won 4 of 6 games against the Rays this year. Will that trend continue?

In 2013, these two teams met in a play-in game. They were 4-0 going into Cleveland. This year, the Guardians will try to change the script. Will the same be true this year? The Rays have played nine straight road games, and with the new Wild Card Playoff format, all three games will be played in Cleveland. The Guardians have won games by playing fundamental baseball and using their speed and defense. They also have a strong pitching rotation and bullpen, making them difficult to beat. When scoring 6+ runs, the Guardians are 42-0. They will travel as far as their bats will allow, their stars include Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, Andres Giminez and big bat Josh Naylor. This team has struck out the least amount of any team in the majors this year so it will be up to these guys to make life hard on the Rays pitching. They trot out a solid starting three of Shane Bieber, Tristan McKenize and Cal Quantrill. Bieber and Mckenzie both sport sub 3 ERAs and WHIPs at or 1.00. Quantrill is no slouch either, he went 15 and 5 this year with an ERA of 3.34 and a WHIP of 1.21. All three pitch deep into games which is great for Tito Francona as he can then rely on his back half bullpen of setup man James Karinchak and closer Emmanuel Clase who had 42 saves.

The Rays haven't been able to replicate their World Series success from 2020. They failed to make the playoffs in 2021 and struggled at times this season. Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, and former Cleveland Guardian Corey Kluber anchor the Rays rotation. However, their story has struggled at the plate. They are ranked 24th in OPS, strike out frequently, and have struggled to get hits at times. If they can resolve their issues at the plate, they have a chance to win this series, but that would be an outlier given how this season has gone.

This series is a toss-up in Vegas. Although the Guardians are -130 and the Rays are +110, the majority of bets and handle favor the Rays. The Guardians have been playing solid baseball all season and are not going away. The Guardians are 46-35 at home. The Rays are a much better home team, but they have been subpar on the road this season, going 35-46, and coming off of 9 straight road games may have taken its toll.

Prediction: Guardians 2-1

  1. Mariners vs. Blue Jays

The Mariners travel to Toronto to play the Blue Jays. Two teams that haven't been to the playoffs in a long time. Except for the Covid year, the Blue Jays haven't been since 2016. And the Mariners have ended their longest postseason drought by reaching the Wild Card round this year. They haven't competed in the October Classic in 21 years. The Mariners have had the Blue Jays number this season winning 5 of 7 games and winning 5 in a row. The last they played was in July so these teams haven't seen each other in 3 months.

This year, these two teams did a lot of damage with the long ball, with the Blue Jays ranking seventh in HRs and the Mariners ranking ninth. The Blue Jays had five players with more than 20 home runs, led by the sons of 90's baseball hero Vladdy Guerrero Jr, who had 32. The Blue Jays also led the league in batting average, thanks to a strong lineup that included Bo Bichette, George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Whit Merrifield. They're also no slouch when it comes to pitching, with Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman likely to open the series as a one-two punch.

The Mariners made their money with the long ball, finishing ninth in the league in home runs. They are led by newly minted 300 million dollar man Julio Rodriguez, who is one of the league's most promising young players. With 32 home runs, Eugenio Suarez led the team, followed by Cal Raleigh and Ty France. The Mariners won the majority of their games on offense, but they will send out a lineup of Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, and Logan Gilbert to face the Blue Jays. The atmosphere in Toronto should be electric, and this should be an exciting series.

Prediction: Mariners 2-1

  1. Phillies vs. Cardinals

In terms of playoffs, these two teams are diametrically opposed. The Cardinals are a regular in the playoffs, whereas the Phillies haven't appeared since 2011. This was a close series this year, with the Phillies winning the season series 4-3.

The Cardinals regained their form this season, winning the NL Central and unseating the Brewers with a balanced offensive and pitching attack. They were fifth in OPS and tenth in ERA. On offense, they are led by two superstars, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. They both had more than 30 home runs and 100 RBIs. Both had more than 160 hits and a WAR of more than 7. And this team will only go as far as those two will allow. Add in Albert Pujols' resurgence, which saw him surpass 700 home runs this season, and you can see why they are the favorites in this series. On the mound, they'll start with Jose Quintana and Miles Mikolas before turning to the tried-and-true duo of Wainwright and Molina.

The Phillies finally found their stride and were effective with the long ball, ranking sixth in the league. They were led by Kyle Schwarber's 42 home runs and received 30 from Rhys Hoskins and 22 from J.T. Realmuto. The Phillies' free agents are coming together, and they've been playing some good baseball lately. They have had stretches where they will win 5 or 6 games in a row before regressing to the mean and losing a few in a row before returning to earth. This should be a very tight series. However, the Cardinals usually have a home field advantage due to the large crowd at Busch Stadium. They had a record of 53 and 28 at home and we think that should give them the edge in this series.

Prediction: Phillies 2-1

  1. Padres vs. Mets

The final Wild Card matchup sees the Padres head to Queens to take on the Mets. The Mets were dominate at times this season but stumbled down the stretch and gave up the divsion lead to the Atlanta Braves. Jerry Seinfeld said that the Mets were doomed right after a series with the New York Yankees where Timmy Trumpet played closer Edwin Diaz walk out music. The Mets have a strong home field advantage going 54-27 while the Padres were actually a better team record wise on the road. The Mets struggled with the Padres this year only winning twice in 7 games.

The Mets were everyone's darling to go to the World Series. They won 100 games for the first time since 1998. They were 6th in the league in OPS, Francisco Lindor saw a resurgence at the plate, Pete Alonso hit 40 home runs, Jeff McNeil hit .324 and Starling Marte came around but he will be missing this series due to injury which could be a big loss for the Mets. The way the Mets win this game is with pitching. Scherzer, Degrom who are flat out elite and Tajuan Walker or Carrasco who are serviceable thirds will likely pitch on Sunday. It might not even make it that far if Max Scherzer and Jacob Degrom are hitting their spots.

On the Padres side, they were a preseason favorite to be one of the best teams in the league. They were a bit rudderless, ran into some controversy with Fernando Tatis getting suspened for PED's. Then they made a huge splash at the deadline to get Juan Soto. Manny Machado has single handidly thrown the team on his back and brought them to the Postseason. They were middle of the road in OPS, HR's and batting average.

On the pitching front they are led by Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove. They will need to outduel Degrom and Scherzer if the Padres want to take this series.

Prediction: Mets 2-1