Week 1 is always hit or miss. Teams have taken chunks of the preseason off and come out slow. Mistakes abound, it is hard to hit bets in the first week of the NFL season. We're going to rely on some trends we have found going into this Sunday.

1. Week 1 underdogs in division games overall are 49-22 ATS since 09
2. Road dogs are 60-100-1 SU since 2009
3. Unders hit the most in Week 1 at a 54% advantage
4. The Steelers are 47-26-3 ATS (64%) as underdogs under Mike Tomlin. They are +6.5 underdogs against the Bengals Sunday.
5. Week 1 Indoor games hit the over 68% of the time. Those games include (BUF v LA, TB v DAL, PHI v DET, KC v ARI, NO v ATL, IND v HOU, GB v MIn, LVR v LAC)

At the end of a tumultuous 2021 season, certified grifter Jimmy Haslam decided to go all-in on Deshaun Watson setting up a crazy offseason for the Cleveland Browns. This obviously didn't sit well with Baker Mayfield, who thought he was deserving of a large NFL contract extension. The two parties traded barbs via the media, and it all came to a head when Baker was dealt to the Carolina Panthers in July.

Things heated up in the again recently when Baker was quoted as saying he was going to "Fuck them up," referring to his Week 1 matchup with the Browns, Mayfield added a merchandise drop with a large picture head stating he is now "Off The Leash." Mayfield was never one for maturity. That is a rather laughable statement considering he was one of the worst quarterbacks in 2021. Some may chalk that up to his shoulder injury and his inexplicable tackle against the Texans in Week 3 after throwing an INT, but Mayfield has never panned out for his number 1 draft pick status and expectations.

These statements are clearly bulletin board material for the Browns defense, whose unit ranked as one of the top in the league in 2021. Carolina had a poor showing in the offensive line department last year, and the defense with Clowney and Garrett should be ready to pin their ears back. If there is one thing that Mayfield does not like, and it is pocket pressure. When faced with a clean pocket, Mayfield's completion percentage is in the high 60% range, but when faced with pressure, it drops dramatically. The Browns' game plan will be to get to Mayfield and put pressure on him to make mistakes.

Either way, there should be one team gloating when it's all said and done on Sunday. In terms of betting, we are leaning towards the under here. When two teams who didn't make the playoffs meet, the under has cashed around 58% since 2005. The total currently sits at 42.

Meeting in Week 18 of last year, NFL fans were robbed of one of the most strange occurences the league has ever seen. Both the Raiders and Chargers could have made the playoffs if the teams played to a tie. Towards the end of the game, the teams were tied, the planets looked to be in line and fans around the NFL and on social media were celebrating this unicorn outcome. That is until the prisoner's dilemma between Rich Bisaccia and Brandon Staley happened in a weird standoff. Staley used a time out, when it seemed the Raiders were content to run out the clock. And some speculate that this pissed Bisaccia off so much that the Raiders then got a few first downs and Dan Carlson kicked a game-winning FG to send the Chargers to the golf course for the year.

For this Week 1 matchup this game should be a track meet. The over sits at 52. Overs played in indoor games in Week 1 hit around a 68% clip. Justin Herbet should take another step forward as a premier QB in the league, and David Carr adding Davante Adams should make the Raiders offense much better than last year.

How will Mahomes fare without Tyreek Hill? He accounted for such a large piece of the Chiefs' offense and was their deep threat, which let Travis Kelce able to sit down beneath coverage and pick up first downs and huge chunks of yards. Hill accounted for 38.3% of Kansas City’s targets of 20 or more air yards. The Chiefs brought in JuJu Smith-Schuster to try and fill the void, but his role in Pittsburgh was more of a possession receiver. Mahomes is a generational talent, so I don't expect the dip to be massive, but it's hard to ignore Hill's big play ability for the Chiefs. They take on the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1 and are 6 to 6.5 favorites. This could be a "We're stil here" game. I think the Cardinals seem to be a trendy pick but wouldn't be suprised at all if the Chiefs blow them out.

The same goes with Rodgers in Green Bay. Davante Adams signed a huge contract with the Las Vegas Raiders this offseason. There is no denying the rapport that Rodgers and Adams had. Every time there was the smallest window, it seemed like the two connected for big catches and yardage. Adams was a huge part of the Packers passing game and offense. Adams had 169 targets, 123 completions, 1,553 yards and 11 touchdowns. That equates to 35% of the receiving yards, 42% of the targets, and 17% of the scoring. The Packers will rely on Allen Lazard to fill the void, but as we have seen with Rodgers, he can definitely spread the ball around, but will he trust his current receiving core? I think the Packers will rely heavily on Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon this upcoming season.

There were some major changes across the NFL this offseason, in what seemed to be one of the more active offseasons in history where superstars found new teams. The Broncos and Colts added strong quarterback play. The Chargers and Bills added pass rush to their defense, and the Eagles and Dolphins added downfield threats. Each of these moves have made these teams better for the 2022 season.

Moves:

• Russel Wilson - Denver
• Matt Ryan - Colts
• Chargers - Khalil Mack
• Tyreek Hill - Miami
• Baker Mayfield - Carolina
• Von Miller - Buffalo
• AJ Brown - Eagles
• Deshaun Watson - Browns
• Davante Adams - Raiders
• Chauncey Gardner-Johnson - Eagles