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Five Takeaways from Week 1 of the NFL Season

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Max Wagers

09-13-2022

  1. QB's face off against old teams

Baker Mayfield and the Panthers hosted the Browns. In a nail biter, the Browns pulled out a victory via the strong leg of Cade York hitting a last second FG from 58 yards. Mayfield lost on and off the field. Leading into this week he was quoted by an NFL reporter saying he was going "Fuck Up" the Bronws. Mayfield also created a t-shirt to commemerate that he was no longer being held back by the Browns. The t-shirts sold out but missed their delivery date for Week One. He laid an egg in Week One and then downplayed the matchup in his post game comments which he totally would have done had the Panthers pulled out a victory.

Mayfield at one point was 5/11 with an int a 4 tipped passes, a movie all Browns fans have seen over the last few years. Mayfield padded his stats in the fourth quarter but did nothing in the game to truly help his team win. A broken coverage touchdown was his most electric play of the game.

In Seattle, Russell Wilson returned to a mix of boos and cheers and was upset by his former team. The Broncos had one of the perplexing game plans, and two turnovers at the 1 yard line aided in their defeat. Nathaniel Hackett had one of the worst NFL coaching debuts in history which culminated in a perplexing coaching decisions mixed with poor clock managment. With less than a minute remaining and only 5 yards to go, Hackett decided to try a 64-yard field goal instead of entrusting your franchise 242 million dollar QB that you spent tons of assets to acquire in the offseason. The strategy was to not use your timeouts to chalk up a play and then attempt the second-longest field goal in NFL history. Something that even a rudimentary Madden player would have figured out. In any case, the Seahawks and Carroll played a masterful game and were outright ML winners at +245.

Last night, 87% of bettors backed the Broncos, and Geno Smith is now 9-0 ATS. There is a reason everything in Vegas is gold. Looking to next week The Seahawks are heavy underdogs in San Francisco, and we like the Niners. It is an ideal spot for a comeback, with the majority of the public favoring Seattle following a Monday Night Football recency bias plus Geno Smith can't stayed undefeated ATS forever can he?

  1. New coaches in new places

Some strong performance for Week One new coaches. Only Josh McDaniels (Las Vegas Raiders) and Nathaniel Hackett (Denver Broncos) failed to win or cover the spread. Lovie Smith (Houston Texans) lost his game but covered.

Outright Winners were:

Brian Daboll (New York Giants)

Mike McDaniel (Miami Dolphins)

Matt Eberflus (Chicago Bears)

Kevin O'Connell (Minnesota Vikings)

Dennis Allen (New Orleans Saints)

Todd Bowles (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Let's see if that trend can continue moving forward.

  1. The Chiefs are still here

After everyone wrote off the Chiefs following the departure of Tyreek Hill, what did Patrick Mahomes do? Only another five-touchdown game. In Week One, the Chiefs and Mahomes destroyed the Cardinals, bringing his record to 5-0. He is now one of only a few quarterbacks to have five touchdown games in September. He was unstoppable yesterday, putting the league on notice that the Chiefs are not going away.

Mahomes and Andy Reid are an amazing match and they EASILY covered the -6 spread. The spread initially opened at -3 but balloned to -6. The Cardinals seem to be rudderless. The rumors of Kyler Murray's study cloause in his contract might have some weight. While no doubt talented, there are small parts of the game that we saw in Week One and several playoff games which make you think that film study could be a root issue.

  1. Aaron Rodgers has no WR's

The Packers traveled to Minnesota and were humiliated by Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson.

Although the Packers defense didn't play their best game, what was even more concerning was what Packer fans had feared all offseason after losing Davante Adams. The Packers missed a deep shot on the first play from scrimmage, and Rodgers and the WR core were never on the same page after that. So, what are the Packers going to do now? Rodgers is an excellent quarterback who should be able to connect with this group, but it was a bleak start for a team with championship aspirations.

The Vikings played a complete game and kept a trend of divisional dogs winning their games. Minnesota was -2 and covered with ease. Home dogs intra division cover in week one around 64% of the time. They joined Atlanta, and Houston as the other two teams that covered. The trend went 3-0 this week.

  1. The Bills look legit

The Buffalo Bills opened the season by destroying last year's Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams on Thursday.

Josh Allen picked up where he left off, going 26 of 31, 297 yards, and three touchdowns. He had two interceptions, but they were more on the receiver. Stefon Diggs and Allen connected eight times for 122 yards and a touchdown, tormenting Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey gave up a nearly perfect passer rating.

The Bills, who were -2.5 favorites, were hammered by the betting public, and it wasn't close. The Bills covered with ease on the power of a dominate second half. The Rams' championship celebrations were ruined and raised questions of what the teams identity is moving forward.

The Bills appear to be completely legitimate and even stronger than last year. They hope to become the seventh preseason Super Bowl favorite to win from start to finish.