This was the featured game on the NFL Week 6 schedule, and it lived up to the hype. In the regular season, Josh Allen and the Bills exacted revenge on the Chiefs once more. They went into Arrowhead and battled the Chiefs, eventually taking the lead late in the fourth quarter. The Bills defense did what it couldn't do last year by intercepting Patrick Mahomes with one minute remaining in the game.

Allen maintains his MVP bid by throwing for 329 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. Allen completed throw after throw and used his legs to leap over a Chiefs defender for a key first down inside the two-minute warning.

The Bills are off this week, while the Chiefs travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers. The spread is unusual, given that the Niners are only three point favorites. Keep an eye on the game.

This season underdogs and unders are hitting at a very profitable rate.

• Underdogs 55-38-1 or 59% ATS
• Public Favorites of greater than 60% 13-26 or 33% ATS
• NFL Unders: 57-37 or 61%
• Primetime Unders: 13-6 or 68%

Will this pattern continue, and what is to blame? Some attribute this to a lack of preseason, but overall scoring is down, and fantasy scoring is down 22% from last year. Time will tell, but we'll ride these trends until they break.

Two perrenial struggling ~~New Jersey~~ New York teams, The Jets and Giants have gotten out of the gates hot.

Breece Hall and Sauce Gardner are legitimate candidates for Offensive Rookie of the Year and Defensive Rookie of the Year, respectively. Robert Saleh has done an outstanding job. He overcame an early Zach Wilson injury, made the most of Joe Flacco, and his team is playing excellent defense and running the football. They are coming off a big win at Lambeau Field against the Packers. They travel to Denver to face the struggling Broncos, who are favored by three points. It'll be interesting to see how much underdog love the Jets +3 get this week, as we expect it to be one of the most popular bets on the board.

Brian Daboll, the Giants' coach, and a resurgent Saquon Barkley lead the way. The Giants keep winning, coming back from double digit deficits last weekend against the Ravens, and Daniel Jones has the G-Men marching. They're using his legs and Saquon's undeniable talent to ground and pound opponents. Saquon is the likely favorite for comeback player of the year, as he is currently second in the league in rushing and is coming off an injury-plagued 2021 season.

Barkley is beginning to resemble the player the Giants selected second overall. Daboll is bringing his talents and an aggressive coaching mindset to the table, and it is paying off. He's a lot of fun to watch, and all of his guys believe in his mission statement. It's clear they're all in, and the product on the field speaks for itself.

On Sunday, many bettors backed the Browns at -3. Forgetting that betting on Bill Belichick as an underdog is about as safe as it gets. Even without Hall of Famer Tom Brady, he consistently outcoaches his opponents.

This weekend, he neutralized Nick Chubb and coached circles around Kevin Stefanski. The Patriots beat the Browns 38-15, and Bailey Zappe looked like a reincarnation of Tom Brady. Belichick is a master at taking away your team's best asset and forcing you to try to beat the Patriots with your team's weakness. That was evident as Jacoby Brissett threw the ball 45 times to Nick Chubb's 12 carries.

Bill remains an evil genius, with the Patriots being incredibly competitive year in and year out, especially in recent years when he hasn't had a franchise quarterback.

Twitter was ablaze during Monday Night Football as Draftkings offered a boost on Justin Herbert TD prop. The boost took his throw 1 TD pass odds from -800 to +100, an incredibly awesome positive ev bet.

Herbert had thrown a touchdown pass in 36 out of 37 games in his career and on Monday Night he added another goose egg to that column. The prop incredibly did not hit which led to calls for refunds and game fixing suggesting that Draftkings and the NFL were in cahoots.

In reality it all boils down to variance and mathematical expectation, which is the amount a bet will average winning or losing.

The coin flip example is the best way to explain this. When a coin is flipped, there are two possible outcomes, each with a 50% chance of occurring. If you flip the coin 100 times, you will statistically have 50 heads and 50 tails.

In theory, you could get completely different results. In the worst-case scenario, you could receive 100 cases of one of the two. This is what variation is all about.

We noticed the difference on Monday night. Herbert had thrown a TD 36 times out of 37 attempts, but with variance, the 37th time is not guaranteed.