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Five things to watch during Week 3 of the NFL Season

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Max Wagers

09-22-2022

  1. Season on the brink

Last season, the Raiders, Bengals, Titans, and Colts all made the playoffs. All of these teams have gotten off to a bad start in 2022. Their seasons are effectively on the line on Sunday. Since the AFL-NFL merger, only 38 of 400 0-2 teams have made the playoffs. Things worsen. If a team starts 0-3, the odds drop to 3.2%. Only 5 teams in NFL history have done so.

All of these teams were shells of their former selves from last season. The Bengals went to the Super Bowl and were a drive away from winning. One of their largest problem areas was offensive line. They tried to address that this offseason and spent a lot of money to bolster their line with La'el Collins. He instantly became a meme last Sunday with his quotes from the off-season that he was now Burrows' "personal bodyguard". Burrow has been sacked 13 times this year. The Bengals take on the Jets in what seems to be a trap game. The Bengals opened at 4.5 point favorites but that number has balloned up to 6. It is favorite of the public and receiving heavy action. The Bengals have played two subpar games so far and have been off kilter compared to their magical run in 2021. Things should improve on Sunday against the Jets. I really like the Jamar Chase O 5.5 reception prop bet.

The Colts signed Matt Ryan, who has looked worse than Carson Wentz in two games, and they are having difficulty getting Jonathan Taylor going, who was the engine that drove the offense in 2021. Taylor is averaging 5 yards per carry, but he doesn't appear to be himself just yet. Things will get worse when they play the Chiefs on Sunday.

The Titans and Ryan Tanehill's relationship may have reached an end. Last year, as the top seed in the playoffs, they were humiliated by the Bengals, and Tannehill hasn't fared much better in the first two games. Derrick Henry has yet to find his stride and appeared sluggish in his first two contests. They are coming off a Monday night thrashing of the Bills and will be 2 point favorites against the Raiders.

The Raiders, who signed Davante Adams in the offseason, have the least to worry about, as they have lost close games to good teams. Their defense appears to be improving, and they were in command against the Cardinals on Sunday before their offense stalled and they saw their lead slip away.

  1. Bills vs. Dolphins

On Sunday, the Bills and dolphins will compete for first place in the AFC East. The Bills are preseason Super Bowl favorites, while the Dolphins, led by new head coach Mike McDaniel and newly acquired wide receiver Tyreek Hill, have made waves in the last two weeks with impressive victories. The Bills have done similar things, including destroying your Super Bowl champions and dismantling the Tennessee Titans on Monday night. The Bills appear to be an runaway train smashing everything in their path. And if you ask Chris Berman nobody circle the wagons like the Buffalo Bills.

The Bills are 5 1/2 to 6 point favorites in this early divisional game in Miami. The Bills appear unstoppable in the first two games, and the 72 dolphins are shaking in their boots. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have other plans. With a revamped offense, they can now stretch the field with multiple wide receivers, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is off to a strong start in his 2022 season, is looking to prove all the doubters wrong. This should be one of the top games on Sunday, with the players on the field and two excellent coaches. Perhaps this could be the newest AFC East coaching rivalry with a down year expected from the Patriots.

The Bills have had a lot of success in Miami over the last ten years, with a record of 10 and 3, and we expect that trend to continue. They also have covered in 5 out of the last 7 meetings vs. Miami. We expect the Bills' warpath to continue to roll right through South Florida and into week four.

  1. Aaron Rodgers won't be retiring in Tampa Bay

This weekend the Packers head to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has not been kind to Rodgers or the Packers over the last few years.

Rodgers sports a subpar record against Tampa Bay and has incurred a devestating playoff loss to them in the NFC Divisional round. In the state of Florida, Rodgers stats noticeably dip compared to his other performances across the country. Chalk that up to what you may, but I think this is the weekend he gets off the schneid.

Tampa Bay is missing key members of their offense, Godwin and Evans, and the offensive line has had Brady rushed in each game they have played. We also think the spread is off in this game. The Packers are underdogs and in our opinion the spread is off. We like the Packers outright in this game and Rodgers and the Packer running game to bring home the W.

  1. Are the Eagles for real?

The Eagles have started the 2022 season strong. Their Super Bowl and NFC East odds have gone to favorite status following their performance in the first two weeks of the season. The primary reason? Jalen Hurts appears to have advanced to the next level at quarterback. Jalen Hurts' career is one of endurance. Hurts was the starter at Alabama before being replaced by Tua Tagovailoa, who is now in his junior season as the Dolphins' quarterback. He was benched and demonstrated why he is a great teammate.

He put his head down and got to work, replacing an injured Tagovailoa and leading the team to a comeback victory over Georgia in the 2018 SEC Championship Game. He then transferred to Oklahoma and developed an extremely draft-worthy profile. Fast forward to his NFL career, and the Eagles selected Jalen Hurts in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft, taking him 53rd overall. Jalen Hurts appears to be taking the next step in his development as an NFL quarterback. He struggled as a rookie, but he found his stride in 2021, leading the Eagles to the playoffs.

This season has been all systems go, and he leads his 2-0 Eagles to Washington to face the Commanders on Sunday. Hurts has never covered as a road favorite against a division rival, but we think that will change this week. The spread is simply too large, with the Eagles favored by 6.5 points. We believe the Eagles will cover and improve to 3-0 on the season.

  1. Hungry Dogs run fast?

Underdogs are a popular betting strategy, taking points or moneyline and getting a postive odds payout is enticing and sometimes you can get great closing line value on dogs.

This year even though dogs are 11-19-1 SU, betting on these teams would have net you at least a 2 unit profit.

ATS Dogs are 17-13-1 covering 56% of the time. Which 56% is an extremely profitable percentage to aim for long term. If you're hitting at 56% you will be sitting pretty long term.

Every year there are dogs that net large profits, so the question is who will be this years golden dog? Last year if you played the Cardinals, Titans or Raiders you would have went 19 - 6.

Teams that potentially fit this trend so far are Houston, Atlanta and the Giants, all with 2-0 ATS records. Houston and Atlanta are underdogs this weekend so they look to continue that trend to profit.